Moody's ups 2017-18 Gdp growth forecasts for Italy to +1.3%

Rome - The international agency Moody's has improved the Italian economy growth estimates the for this year and the next. For 2017 and 2018 the agency estimates a GDP growth of 1.3%, against previous estimates of 0.8% and 1%. In its Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report, Moody's affirms that the improved estimate for Italy stems "from supportive monetary and fiscal policies, as well as stronger growth in the rest of the European Union". Moody's forecasts growth in the Eurozone of 2.1% in 2017 and of 1.9% in 2018 after 1.6% in 2016. "Robust survey indicators suggest that growth should accelerate through the rest of the year, while the consumer confidence indicator at a 16-year high bodes well for the consumer-driven recovery", the report says with reference to the Eurozone. Moody's has revised up Germany's GDP growth forecasts to 2.2% and 2.0% for 2017 and 2018, respectively, and similarly for France to 1.6% for the 2017-2018 period, from 1.3% and 1.4%. G20 economies are expected to grow at rate of slightly more than 3% in 2017-2018, higher than last year's 2.6%. The agency expects US growth of 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, down from an initial 2.4% and 2.5% as a result of the expectations of a more modest fiscal stimulus than previously assumed. Moody's report also includes an overview of geopolitical risks, including the risk of potential conflict in the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea and the Middle East. "A significant escalation of these risks could have significant negative credit implications for the global economy", noted Moody's. Other risks mentioned by Moody's include a protectionist turn by the USA and financial market volatility stemming from changes in expectations regarding monetary policies.